Wednesday, March 28, 2007

The Annual MLS Prediction

Each year, I love to predict the coming Major League Soccer season ahead of time.

Impressive, in that the last two seasons I've correctly predicted the two clubs in the MLS Cup final. Not so impressive in that both times I predicted a New England victory, and both times I was wrong.

Revs suck!

Season Twelve kicks off on Saturday April 7th at 3:30 pm EST LIVE on ABC when the Colorado Rapids open their brand new Dick's Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado against my beloved DC United. Later on in April, expansion side Toronto FC opens their new stadium, BMO Stadium, in Toronto (dramatic pause) Ontario, Canada. Toronto have impressed by selling out their season ticket alotment. 14,000 season ticket holders in a 20,000 seat stadium for a club that's never played a real game.

I've thought about it for awhile, and don't feel too confident, but this is how I see it going down.

MLS EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. DC United
2. New England Revolution
3. New York Red Bulls
4. Chicago Fire
5. Kansas City Wizards
6. Toronto FC
7. Columbus Crew

As the pre-season ends, most experts are saying United look like the future champions. I think they'll take the East. Revs have lost a big player in Clint Dempsey, and Shalrie Joseph wants out. Not to mention captain Joe Franchino taking a leave of absence. But they still have a lot of talent, and still have Matt Reis in the net and Taylor Twellman to score the goals. NYRB have added Claudio Reyna, and have the greatest MLS coach ever in Bruce Arena. But unless they find somebody to put it in the back of the net, life could be tough. The Fire lost some talent, but always seem to be a tough club to beat. I think they'll squeak into the final playoff spot. KC have added a great keeper in Hartman, but I also wonder where the goals will come from. Unless Eddie Johnson actually starts earning his paycheck, it'll be tough. Toronto have great support already, and some good players picked up in the various expansion drafts, but I think it'll be a tough first season. The Crew have some great young talent, but I don't think they have what it takes to go too far.

MLS WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Houston Dynamo
2. Los Angeles Galaxy
3. FC Dallas
4. Colorado Rapids
5. Club Deportivo Chivas USA
6. Real Salt Lake

Dynamo are the defending champions, and still look strong on paper. LA will have to wait for David Beckham until August, and I think they'll struggle early. But Becks will be motivated when he arrives, and Landon Donovan has a lot to prove this year after a dismal World Cup and no playoffs in 2006. Plus, he wins titles in odd numbered years (2001 & 2003 with the Quakes and 2005 with LA). Dallas have a lot of talent and a deadly pair up top with Kenny Cooper and Carlos Ruiz. Can new coach Steve Morrow finally bring the wins? Colorado are always tough, despite not looking like much. A new stadium should inspire the club. CD Chivas USA just don't strike me this year. They were pretty good in 06, but they've lost the coach and some big name players. Can Ante Razov show up again? Is Preki the right man for the job? Too many questions, and I think they'll miss out on the playoffs on the last day of the season. Real Salt Lake have some talent, and have added Freddy Adu. But still don't measure up in the West.

A new playoff format for 2007, as the top two teams in each conference get in, than the next four best point totals regardless of conference. Here's how I see it going down.

TOP TWO IN EAST: DC United & New England Revolution
TOP TWO IN WEST: Houston Dynamo & Los Angeles Galaxy
NEXT FOUR BEST POINT TOTALS: New York Red Bulls, FC Dallas, Colorado Rapids, Chicago Fire

I'm not positive, but I'm guessing they'll seed them 1-8 based on points, so here's how I see the playoffs.

QUARTER-FINAL
#1 Houston Dynamo v. #8 Chicago Fire
#4 New England Revolution v. #5 New York Red Bulls
#3 Los Angeles Galaxy v. #6 FC Dallas
#2 DC United v. #7 Colorado Rapids

SEMI-FINAL
#1 Houston Dynamo v. #5 New York Red Bulls
#2 DC United v. #3 Los Angeles Galaxy

MLS CUP 2007
#1 Houston Dynamo v. #3 Los Angeles Galaxy

Come final time, I think Becks and Donovan will be flying high. It'll be a good to great game, but I'm going with the fairy tale ending of:

MLS CHAMPIONS: Los Angeles Galaxy

I'll also guess this:
ALL-STAR GAME: MLS beats Celtic
US OPEN CUP: Houston Dynamo over New England Revolution

Take it to the bank!

(well, not so fast. Remember how I did on my Oscar picks-50%-and my Champions League picks-63%)

Whatever happens, it'll be an awesome season. New team. New stadiums. Sponsors on the front of jerseys. TV rights paid by Disney, FSC, and Univision. Every game on the national partners and Direct Kick.

I cannot wait!

Be seeing you!

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